[Aaus-list] Fwd: Crisis in Crimea and Ukraine

Mon Mar 10 01:23:09 EDT 2014

"National Security Forum" is a project of Reno, NV resident Tyrus W Cobb,  
who was a national security adviser to President Reagan.

He has been distributing by email many links to articles on the situation  
in Ukraine.

There are two good links in the message I am forwarding, also the text of  
a piece that I wrote on the subject at Ty's request.

Email Tyrus Cobb to be added to his list.

Oleh Weres
Reno, NV

------- Forwarded message -------
From: "National Security Forum" <Twcobb at gmail.com>
To: oweres at charter.net
Cc:
Subject: Crisis in Crimea and Ukraine
Date: Sun, 09 Mar 2014 21:37:48 -0700
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Colleagues:

There are three very different and excellent articles today with respect  
to the crisis in the Crimea and Ukraine. The first is by Greg Treverton,  
currently a senior policy analyst with the RAND Corporation and formerly  
the vice chair of the National Intelligence Council. The second was  
drafted by Richard Fontaine, formerly a top national security aide to SEN  
John McCain and now the President of the Center for a New American  
Security (CNAS). The third is by Reno resident Oleh Weres who has close  
ties to Ukraine. All three pieces provide different perspectives and all  
are worth reading.

Treverton’s op ed represents the “Realist” school of thought. He feels  
that Ukraine is hardly functioning now; the reality is that Russia regards  
the Crimea as a vital interest, and the US and the West can do little to  
influence the situation. Hence, now is the time to engage Russia rather  
that confront it.

Fontaine’s piece represents the thinking of those who believe we should be  
taking a very hard line against Putin and Russia, employing a mix of  
political and economic levers to punish Moscow. While Fontaine does not  
call for direct military confrontation, he does advocate implementing a  
range of other levers. Critics may find fault with Fontaine’s  
recommendations in that any administration is going to have a most  
difficult challenge in bringing the EU and NATO Allies on board his list  
of actions, let alone the resistance that would be there from the  
US/European business community.

Finally, Oleh Weres’ very well argued and passionate plea on behalf of  
Ukraine is very moving. I was also struck by his relative optimism  
regarding Ukraine’s ability to oppose a Russian military incursion beyond  
Crimea and its capacity for recreating a viable state in a short period of  
time from the corrupt failed nation it was under Yanukovich. Weres also  
underlines Russian weaknesses; points with which I agree are often  
overlooked.
Enjoy!
--Ty

First, here is the link to Treverton’s piece: Click here: Where is Ukraine  
Headed?

And here is the link to the Fontaine op ed: Click here: U.S. Should  
Resist, Reinforce and Reassure in Face of Ukraine Crisis | Center for a  
New American Security

And finally, here is the passionate piece by Weres:

ANOTHER ACTION-FILLED WEEK IN UKRAINE
By Oleh Weres

The joy at ousting President Victor Yanukovych proved short-lived.  The  
following week, a mob with Russian flags surrounded the Crimean  
parliament, and some 30 masked gunmen seized the building.  With gunmen  
present in the Chamber, Parliament created a new government headed by the  
leader of a party that received four percent of the vote and three  
delegates in the last Crimean election.  February 27th, Russian troops  
with no identifying marks on their uniforms, deployed from bases of the  
Russian Black Sea Fleet, and more troops started arriving from Russia.

Friday, February 28th, Yanukovych gave a press conference in Rostov, a  
Russian city on the SE border of Ukraine, nearest to Yanukovych’s home  
base in Donetsk.

March 1, mobs with Russian flags stormed government buildings in several  
cities in the East and South of Ukraine.  The largest mob appeared in  
Kharkiv; a long row of chartered buses with Russian plates was parked  
nearby.  Russian social media sites have been urging Russian “volunteers”  
to enter Ukraine as “tourists.”

That evening, President Putin was granted authority to deploy Russian  
troops in Ukraine.

March 7- Ukraine-MoD stated that 16,000 Russian troops were already  
present in Crimea, and more continue to arrive.  Moscow denies the  
presence of Russian troops; those well-armed guys driving fighting  
vehicles are “local volunteers” who bought their Russian uniforms as  
military surplus.

As it stands, Ukraine has lost Crimea and much of her Navy, but is winning  
in all other respects.

Russia has gained Crimea, but is losing everywhere else.

Meanwhile, the people of Crimea are losing most of all.

Putin struck Ukraine at her weakest moment, a week after the new  
government took over, with the essential purge and reorganization of the  
military and security services just beginning.

The Ukrainian authorities responded quickly and effectively.  Full  
mobilization was immediately ordered, and accomplished in three days’  
time.  Forces have been deployed at the border with Crimea, and further  
deployments are under way.  Mobilization of reserves has begun, and every  
day thousands of men are volunteering to serve in the military and local  
militias which would become partisans in the event of a Russian invasion.

In a brilliant move, President Turchinov appointed “oligarchs” governors  
of several oblasts in the East and South.  In late Soviet times, people  
were controlled mostly through their jobs, and that mentality persisted.   
By effectively appointing the largest employer in each oblast governor,  
Turchinov brought the restive oblasts under control.  The police and  
security forces have been purged and redeployed, and are protecting  
government buildings.  The last occupation, in Donetsk, ended March 5 with  
arrest of the seventy occupiers and their “governor”.  Strict border  
control has been implemented, and every day hundreds of “protest tourists”  
 from Russia are denied entry.

The international community responded according to their abilities.  The  
US is offering $1b, the EU $15b and additional loans are expected from the  
IMF.  Ukraine’s government has promised to obey IMF directives to reform  
the economy.  The EU is ready to sign the political part of the  
Association Agreement immediately, and is considering dropping ALL import  
duties on Ukrainian exports pending signature of the economic part of the  
Agreement following Ukrainian elections in May.  Ukrainian authorities  
estimated $70b was stolen during the Yanukovych regime, and some of that  
money has already been found and sequestered in the Netherlands.  Even  
partial recovery of the stolen money could exceed the promised aid and  
save Ukraine’s economy.

Russia and the Natural Gas Lever: The West Steps Up

Naturally, Gazprom is threatening to cut-off gas, but now that’s less of a  
threat.  Ukraine produces one-third of the gas it needs, and production is  
growing rapidly.  Poland, Hungary and just last week Slovakia have agreed  
to deliver “reverse flows” of gas to Ukraine from Europe.  Technical means  
exist to replace most of the gas that Ukraine receives from Russia at  
lower prices.  RWE of Germany has signed a contract to provide 17% of  
Ukraine’s gas needs, and Washington and London are offering to help longer  
term.  Meanwhile, Europe has ample gas in storage following a warm, if  
stormy, winter.

There have been stirrings of a military nature.  The Council of Defense  
Ministers of NATO has reminded Ukraine that the invitation to join  
extended in 2006 stands, and Poland has invoked the NATO Treaty calling  
for consultations because Poland is threatened.  US has deployed  
additional war planes to Poland and the Baltic countries.  In an interview  
March 7, General Martin Dempsey, Chairman JCS, stated that US would  
respond if NATO allies are threatened.  Asked about the possibility  
military intervention in Ukraine, he responded “That’s a question that I  
think deserves to be assessed and reassessed and refreshed as this thing  
evolves.”  Meanwhile, we can safely assume that US is providing Ukraine  
with military intelligence, a resource of tremendous value in preparing  
defense against invasion.

The Future of Ukraine and the Cost to Russia

If Ukraine survives the immediate crisis, it will come out much stronger –  
if a bit smaller – than before.

The feared Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine has not materialized.   
Putin announced military exercises and their conclusion but there have  
been no reports of such exercises actually taking place.  The Russians  
have fortified the very narrow frontier of Crimea with Ukraine, but little  
military activity has been observed along the much longer eastern borders  
of Ukraine: “10 fighting vehicles”, “15 tanks”, “10 helicopters”, “2  
attack planes”.  These forces sound about right for a victory parade, but  
hardly adequate for invading a country of 46 million and larger than  
France.

Apparently, Putin believed his own propaganda, and expected the  
“threatened Russian speakers of Ukraine” to rise up demanding Russian  
protection, whereby Putin would reenact Hitler’s joyous entry to the  
Sudetenland, which sort of happened in Crimea.  While hardly ardent  
nationalists, the people of the East and South want security, not war, and  
have come to appreciate that “Banderite fascists” notwithstanding, the new  
government in Kyiv represents security, while “liberating Russian  
brothers” represent war.

Analyses published by the US Army War College suggest that promised  
reforms of the Russian military are far from complete.  There are several  
“elite” divisions, but even within these divisions, only some units are  
really good; in fact, units of several of these divisions have been  
reported in Crimea.  And if the best of the best are already in Crimea,  
what does Putin have left ?  Properly mobilized, the Russians certainly  
could penetrate Ukrainian territory, but those forces would sustain heavy  
casualties as they advanced.

A poll conducted February 24th indicated 73% of Russians opposed  
intervention in Ukraine.  Numerous public figures have spoken out against  
“the war”, and the Ukrainian national anthem, translated and sung in  
Russian, has gone viral on the Russian Internet.  Aside from the rapidly  
growing Muslim population, Russia is a country of one and two child  
families.  If Russian boys come home in galvanized boxes a wave of outrage  
will wash over the Kremlin; this is why Russian forces in Crimea have  
refrained from initiating the use of lethal force.  A true war with  
thousands of casualties would likely destroy Putin’s regime.

US and Canada have already imposed sanctions, but Europe hesitates.  Even  
without sanctions Russia is suffering.  The stock market dropped 13% in  
one day, and the central bank increased prime rate by 1.5% and spent $12b  
to support the ruble.  JP Morgan’s projection of economic growth has been  
revised down to 0.8% for 2014.

Crimea depends heavily on subsidies from the Ukrainian government and  
tourists, mostly from Ukraine.  It receives all of its gas, most of its  
electric power, and much of its fresh water from Ukraine.  Russian  
occupation has terminated the financial inputs, and the price of utilities  
will skyrocket, ravaging the economy.  The “protected” people of Crimea  
will suffer terribly, and massive aid needed to prevent complete collapse  
and a genuine uprising in Crimea will further strain the Russian economy.

The people of Ukraine have declared their intention to join the Free  
World, and the Free World is responding.  Meanwhile, let us curse Vladimir  
Putin and pray for the people of Crimea.

Reno resident Dr. Oleh Weres is a chemist serving the geothermal power  
industry.  The son of post-War Displaced Persons from Ukraine, he was for  
many years active in the Ukrainian-American community in the SF Bay Area,  
and during the years 1983–1988 served as a Public Member of the US  
Government Commission to investigate the Ukraine Famine of 1932–1933.

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Oleh Weres

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