[Aaus-list] Forbes: Time is not on Ukraine's Side

Max Pyziur pyz at brama.com
Sun Aug 16 09:00:06 EDT 2015

Forbes: Time is not on Ukraine's Side

Enough people are practicing schadenfreude because Russia's economy is now 
under the constraints of economic sanctions and an environment for low 
hydrocarbon prices for the next three to five years.

Don't kid yourself: Russia can make it on its own in this time period 
because it has fx reserves and something to sell on world markets.

Ukraine can't make it on its own, and is on IMF life-support systems for 
a considerabley extended future. Look 
at both World Bank and IMF projections, and both institutions forecast 
weakness if not contraction for Ukraine's medium-term.

As Mark Adomanis says, "Even as Russia’s economy has turned sour, the gap 
between Russian and Ukrainian economic performance has grown not shrank. 
That is to say that Ukraine’s economy has not simply fared worse than 
Russia’s, it has fared increasingly worse."


pyz at brama.com

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